nineveh_uk (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
nineveh_uk) wrote2022-02-25 08:17 pm
nineveh_uk) wrote2022-02-25 08:17 pm
Well, this is a shitshow that has been a long time coming
On 22–23 February 2014, the last night of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, in which the Russian state had run a systematic doping operation that saw it top the medal table, Putin convened a meeting with the security services, and kicked off the invasion of Ukraine and ultimate seizing of Crimea. Having received minimal sanction for either of these offences - the latter obviously more serious than the former, but the two of them in no way unconnected - it shouldn't be surprising that Putin and the Russian government decided to do the same thing again. Why change a winning formula?
So now everyone who ought to have seen this coming is talking about ooh, maybe this time around the sanctions might a little bit tougher, but are they going to be tough enough to really hurt Putin? Right now it seems unlikely. It's true that it takes time to pull such things together (start sooner then?) and it can be worth taking that time to make things work, but FFS! It's time for a lot more serious conversations doing things that will be painful for the UK, Europe, the US, and other states, but that need to be done. Because it would be a lot better to do them now than waffle for 6 months and then do it in October rather than March for e.g. stopping purchasing gas. Or have to fight a war in Estonia. And though we will never know, it could be hurting a lot less now if more had been done 8 years ago. Or earlier than that, or later than that, when Russia was invading other countries. One must give credit to Ukrainian's President Zelensky, who four years ago was scarcely a politician, and ironically in recent years probably one of the people who has had least power to do anything about being next door to a man with delusions of being the new Peter the Great, or whatever, and who seems to be doing a very decent job of not dashing off to exile.
But it is all such a depressing mess, and the more depressing because some at least of it was probably preventable, had a damn been given a lot time ago.
So now everyone who ought to have seen this coming is talking about ooh, maybe this time around the sanctions might a little bit tougher, but are they going to be tough enough to really hurt Putin? Right now it seems unlikely. It's true that it takes time to pull such things together (start sooner then?) and it can be worth taking that time to make things work, but FFS! It's time for a lot more serious conversations doing things that will be painful for the UK, Europe, the US, and other states, but that need to be done. Because it would be a lot better to do them now than waffle for 6 months and then do it in October rather than March for e.g. stopping purchasing gas. Or have to fight a war in Estonia. And though we will never know, it could be hurting a lot less now if more had been done 8 years ago. Or earlier than that, or later than that, when Russia was invading other countries. One must give credit to Ukrainian's President Zelensky, who four years ago was scarcely a politician, and ironically in recent years probably one of the people who has had least power to do anything about being next door to a man with delusions of being the new Peter the Great, or whatever, and who seems to be doing a very decent job of not dashing off to exile.
But it is all such a depressing mess, and the more depressing because some at least of it was probably preventable, had a damn been given a lot time ago.